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Oil Markets Stabilize as Hormuz Agreement Eases Supply Concerns | 6th August, 2026

Oil Stabilizes

Oil markets remained relatively stable as an agreement between Iran and Oman helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. The improvement in geopolitical sentiment kept crude oil prices subdued despite lingering global uncertainties. At the same time, fading expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes weakened the US Dollar, providing support for major currencies including the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Euro. Investors now continue to monitor developments in the energy market alongside central bank expectations for fresh market direction.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil traded near the $74.00 level as markets reacted positively to the Iran-Oman agreement aimed at maintaining safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The easing of supply disruption concerns reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: The Iran-Oman agreement improved confidence in uninterrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

• US Economic Data: Stable demand expectations limited aggressive selling pressure.

• FOMC Outcome: Softer Federal Reserve expectations weighed slightly on the US Dollar, offering modest support to commodities.

• Trade Policy: Improved shipping conditions supported global energy trade stability.

• Monetary Policy: Expectations of less aggressive Fed tightening continued supporting broader commodity demand.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral

• Resistance: $75.20

• Support: $73.20

• Forecast: WTI may continue consolidating near current levels while traders monitor geopolitical developments and global demand expectations.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral as easing supply concerns offset broader supportive fundamentals.

• Catalysts: OPEC+ developments, US crude inventory data, Middle East diplomacy, and global economic indicators.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index remained close to multi-week lows near 99.65 as fading expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes continued weighing on the Greenback. Improved global risk sentiment also reduced demand for the Dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Improving Middle East sentiment reduced defensive demand for the Dollar.

• US Economic Data: Investors awaited fresh US economic releases for additional policy clues.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations that the Fed may pause further tightening continued pressuring the Dollar.

• Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions encouraged broader risk appetite.

• Monetary Policy: Markets continued pricing in a less aggressive Federal Reserve outlook.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: 100.20

• Support: 99.40

• Forecast: DXY may remain under pressure unless stronger US economic data revives expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish as investors rotate toward higher-yielding and risk-sensitive assets.

• Catalysts: US employment data, inflation reports, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve communications.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar continued outperforming the US Dollar as recovering oil prices and fading expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes supported the commodity-linked currency. The combination of firmer energy prices and Dollar weakness remained favorable for the Loonie.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Improved stability in the Middle East supported broader market confidence.

• US Economic Data: Softer Dollar sentiment strengthened the Canadian Dollar.

• FOMC Outcome: Reduced Fed hike expectations continued weighing on USD/CAD.

• Trade Policy: Stable global trade supported commodity demand.

• Monetary Policy: Diverging expectations between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada favored CAD.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish USD/CAD

• Resistance: 1.3850

• Support: 1.3770

• Forecast: USD/CAD may continue trending lower if crude oil remains supported and the US Dollar stays weak.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Moderately bearish for USD/CAD.

• Catalysts: Oil prices, Bank of Canada commentary, US economic releases, and Federal Reserve guidance.

USD/CHF Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Swiss Franc strengthened as easing risk aversion and continued US Dollar weakness supported demand for the Swiss currency. Investors maintained confidence in the Franc while reducing exposure to the weakening Greenback.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced geopolitical tensions improved overall market sentiment.

• US Economic Data: Weak Dollar performance remained the primary catalyst.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve continued favoring CHF.

• Trade Policy: Stable international conditions supported broader currency market stability.

• Monetary Policy: Diverging central bank expectations continued influencing USD/CHF.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish USD/CHF

• Resistance: 0.8010

• Support: 0.7940

• Forecast: USD/CHF could continue lower while the Dollar remains under pressure.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish for USD/CHF.

• Catalysts: Federal Reserve commentary, Swiss economic data, and global risk sentiment.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD continued its upward momentum and appeared poised to extend its advance beyond the 1.1600 level. A weaker US Dollar and resilient market sentiment continued supporting demand for the Euro.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Improving market sentiment reduced safe-haven demand for the Dollar.

• US Economic Data: Broad Dollar weakness remained supportive for EUR/USD.

• FOMC Outcome: Softer Fed expectations continued benefiting the Euro.

• Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions provided additional support.

• Monetary Policy: Expectations that the European Central Bank would maintain a relatively firm policy stance supported the common currency.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 1.1650

• Support: 1.1570

• Forecast: EUR/USD may continue climbing if the Dollar remains weak and ECB expectations stay supportive.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish as investors continue favoring the Euro over the US Dollar.

• Catalysts: ECB commentary, US economic data, inflation reports, and Federal Reserve communications.

Wrap-Up

Energy markets took center stage as the Iran-Oman agreement helped ease concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing oil prices to stabilize despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty. The improving outlook for global energy supply reduced market anxiety while fading expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes kept the US Dollar under pressure. This combination supported commodity-linked and major currencies, with the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Euro extending gains against the Greenback. Going forward, traders will closely monitor developments in the oil market, central bank guidance, and key economic data to assess whether the current improvement in market sentiment can be sustained.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

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