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Geopolitical Risks Return as Stronger US Dollar Pressures Metals and Lifts Oil | 1st June, 2026

Geopolitical Risks Return

Global financial markets are turning cautious once again as uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran truce and escalating tensions in the Middle East drive renewed demand for the US Dollar and support energy prices. While Gold and Silver continue to attract some safe-haven interest, a stronger Dollar and persistent expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are limiting gains across precious metals. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are moving higher as traders monitor the growing geopolitical risks across the region.

Gold Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold remains below its recent two-week high as geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, but stronger US Dollar momentum and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations continue limiting upside potential.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Iran truce uncertainty sustains defensive market positioning

• US Economic Data: Strong data supports the Dollar and Treasury yields

• FOMC Outcome: Markets continue pricing a restrictive Fed stance

• Trade Policy: Global uncertainty maintains moderate safe-haven demand

• Monetary Policy: Higher interest rate expectations remain a headwind for Gold

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bearish

• Resistance: $4,720

• Support: $4,640

• Forecast: Gold may remain range-bound while Fed expectations support USD strength

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish Gold

• Catalysts: Fed commentary and geopolitical developments

Silver Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver is holding gains above the $75.50 region as geopolitical uncertainty continues supporting precious metals demand despite broader USD strength.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Iran deal uncertainty sustains safe-haven interest

• US Economic Data: Strong US fundamentals limit stronger upside momentum

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue weighing on metals

• Trade Policy: Stable industrial demand supports Silver resilience

• Monetary Policy: Elevated yields remain a challenge for sustained gains

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to bullish

• Resistance: $77.00

• Support: $75.00

• Forecast: Silver may continue consolidating while geopolitical uncertainty persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Mildly bullish Silver

• Catalysts: Dollar movement and geopolitical headlines

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index is strengthening above the 99.00 level as uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran truce encourages defensive positioning across financial markets.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Middle East uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand

• US Economic Data: Strong macroeconomic conditions support USD strength

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations continue underpinning the Dollar

• Trade Policy: Global uncertainty supports defensive asset allocation

• Monetary Policy: Higher-for-longer rate expectations remain intact

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 99.80

• Support: 98.90

• Forecast: DXY likely to remain supported while geopolitical risks remain elevated

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish USD

• Catalysts: Geopolitical developments and US data releases

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil is climbing toward the $89.00 level as military activity in the Middle East raises concerns about potential supply disruptions and regional instability.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Israeli military operations increase energy market uncertainty

• US Economic Data: Stable growth outlook supports demand expectations

• FOMC Outcome: Fed outlook remains a secondary factor for oil prices

• Trade Policy: Supply security concerns remain the primary focus

• Monetary Policy: Global growth concerns continue limiting aggressive upside

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: $90.50

• Support: $87.20

• Forecast: Oil prices may remain supported while geopolitical risks escalate

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish oil

• Catalysts: Middle East developments and supply concerns

AUD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/JPY is advancing as stronger Chinese manufacturing sentiment supports the Australian Dollar, while the Japanese Yen faces pressure from improving regional growth expectations.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Stable Asia-Pacific sentiment supports risk currencies

• US Economic Data: Broader market stability benefits AUD demand

• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations remain secondary to regional drivers

• Trade Policy: Stronger Chinese activity supports Australian exports

• Monetary Policy: RBA outlook remains comparatively supportive for AUD

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 114.80

• Support: 113.20

• Forecast: AUD/JPY may extend gains if regional sentiment remains constructive

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish AUD/JPY

• Catalysts: Chinese economic data and broader risk sentiment

Wrap-Up

Global markets are becoming increasingly cautious as uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran truce and broader Middle East tensions revive demand for safe-haven assets and support energy prices, while persistent expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve continue underpinning the US Dollar and limiting upside momentum across precious metals, leaving investors focused on geopolitical developments and central bank expectations as the primary drivers of market direction in the sessions ahead.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

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Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.