This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
Crude oil prices retreated on Tuesday, with WTI slipping below $66.50 as traders adopted a cautious stance amid lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Although talks are set to resume, lack of concrete progress kept risk appetite in check. Meanwhile, global demand concerns and anticipation ahead of the upcoming FOMC policy decision added to the subdued tone across energy markets.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading just below $38.00, showing limited movement as market participants digest the recent softening of global trade tensions. The pause in aggressive rhetoric between the US and China has lifted some pressure off safe-haven assets, though silver remains supported by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite signs of reduced risk aversion, the precious metal continues to hover near recent highs as traders weigh incoming macro data. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming FOMC decision, which could impact demand for non-yielding assets like silver.
Geopolitical Risks: Cooling US-China trade tensions reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets like silver.
US Economic Data: Investors await US economic reports this week to assess inflation and growth trends.
FOMC Outcome: Traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, which could influence silver’s directional bias.
Trade Policy: Positive tone in global trade discussions has removed some upside pressure on precious metals.
Monetary Policy: The possibility of rate stability or cuts by major central banks could continue to support silver prices.
Trend: Silver maintains a moderately bullish tone, holding above key moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $38.30, followed by a stronger cap at $38.90.
Support: Initial support is seen at $37.50, with a deeper floor near $37.00.
Forecast: XAG/USD may consolidate between $37.50–$38.30 until a catalyst breaks the range.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as trade tension relief is met with FOMC uncertainty.
Catalysts: FOMC rate decision, US GDP data, and any sudden shift in trade negotiations could drive silver volatility.
WTI crude oil is trading just below $66.50, extending its mild bearish bias amid softer market sentiment. Prices edged lower during early Tuesday trade as demand concerns resurface following weak global manufacturing data. However, downside pressure appears limited as supply constraints and potential OPEC+ actions remain supportive. Traders are now watching US inventory data and broader risk trends to determine short-term direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions have eased slightly, softening risk premiums on crude.
US Economic Data: Recent PMI figures pointed to slowing US industrial activity, weighing on oil demand outlook.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a cautious Fed stance may cap downside in oil by weakening the USD.
Trade Policy: Calmer global trade conditions reduce fears of energy demand shocks.
Monetary Policy: Rate cut hopes persist, which could eventually support oil via improved economic sentiment.
Trend: Short-term trend is mildly bearish with a lower high pattern forming.
Forecast: WTI may range between $65.80 and $66.80 pending fundamental catalysts.
Market Sentiment: Investors remain cautious amid mixed global growth signals and fading geopolitical fear.
Catalysts: API inventory report, FOMC decision, and Chinese demand updates may influence short-term price action.
USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3750 as investors await clarity on ongoing US-Canada trade negotiations. The pair remains supported by a modestly stronger US Dollar but faces resistance from stable crude oil prices that underpin the Canadian Dollar. The lack of clear direction reflects the market’s wait-and-see stance on whether new tariffs will be imposed or avoided.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty over bilateral trade terms continues to weigh on CAD sentiment.
US Economic Data: Mixed US economic indicators offer modest support for the greenback.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook could limit USD upside against the Loonie.
Trade Policy: No breakthrough yet on the US-Canada tariff discussions, keeping traders cautious.
Monetary Policy: The BoC’s neutral stance keeps USD/CAD responsive to US policy moves.
Trend: Sideways to slightly bullish on higher lows above 1.3700.
Resistance: 1.3775 followed by 1.3800.
Support: Initial support lies at 1.3720, then 1.3685.
Forecast: Consolidation expected within 1.3720–1.3780 unless tariff talks spark a breakout.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral as traders await concrete news on tariffs.
Catalysts: US-Canada trade deal updates, oil price moves, and US data releases will guide near-term flows.
NZD/USD is trading just under the 0.6000 mark after rebounding from a one-week low. Despite the modest recovery, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to cautious sentiment ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision. Traders are hesitant to make aggressive moves as they await guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and its implications for global risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Market tone is cautious amid global uncertainty and central bank divergence.
US Economic Data: Resilient US figures keep the Dollar supported near-term.
FOMC Outcome: Wednesday’s Fed announcement is the main event risk driving Kiwi’s hesitation.
Trade Policy: No fresh catalysts from China or US-NZ relations impacting flows.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed tightening bias and RBNZ’s neutral stance weighs on NZD.
Trend: Slightly bearish while below the 0.6000 threshold.
Resistance: 0.6000 and 0.6030.
Support: 0.5950 and 0.5915.
Forecast: Consolidation likely with bearish tilt unless Fed surprises with dovish tone.
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish as traders reduce risk exposure ahead of FOMC.
Catalysts: FOMC statement, US job market data, and risk trends will determine short-term direction.
Markets remained steady after US-China trade negotiations concluded without major breakthroughs, with discussions set to resume on Tuesday. The lack of escalatory rhetoric has provided a stabilizing effect on global risk sentiment. While no concrete deals have emerged, the ongoing dialogue signals a willingness from both sides to continue cooperation, easing immediate market anxiety.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced tensions between the US and China support risk assets.
US Economic Data: Strong fundamentals continue to back US market resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Looming Fed decision caps major moves until clarity emerges.
Trade Policy: Continuation of dialogue supports global trade outlook.
Monetary Policy: Policy divergence remains in focus pending Fed outcome.
Trend: Neutral across major indices amid wait-and-see mode.
Resistance: S&P 500 faces resistance near 5,625; Nasdaq near 19,900.
Support: S&P 500 at 5,550; Nasdaq at 19,720.
Forecast: Consolidation likely ahead of further trade headlines and Fed commentary.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism as tensions ease without resolution.
Catalysts: Next round of US-China talks and FOMC decision midweek.
WTI’s pullback reflects broader market hesitation as investors weigh geopolitical developments and upcoming US economic data. With US-China negotiations ongoing and the Federal Reserve poised to release its rate decision, volatility may increase in the short term. Until a clear direction emerges, crude prices are likely to remain confined within a narrow range.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Markets advanced on Monday as trade optimism surged following reports that the United States and China are set to extend their mutual tariff pause by another 90 days. This move helped lift overall risk sentiment, pressuring safe-haven assets like gold and the US Dollar. Gold dropped below $3,350 amid diminished geopolitical risk, while major currencies such as the British Pound and Euro capitalized on the weakened USD. The Australian Dollar held steady as traders awaited further clarity from upcoming trade negotiations, and the EUR/USD pair held firm above 1.1750 after a constructive US-EU trade accord.
Gold has slipped toward $3,335–$3,340 as easing trade tensions and a firmer USD suppress safe-haven flows. Technicals confirm a bearish tilt with key support zones near $3,310. Unless risk sentiment reverses or dollar weakness re‑emerges, expect price to remain range‑bound or drift lower heading into the FOMC and US jobs data.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions ease amid progress on US–EU and US–China tariff negotiations, undermining gold’s safe‑haven demand and pressuring prices lower
US Economic Data: Robust US data—especially labour and GDP figures—supports a firmer USD, adding headwinds to bullion
FOMC Outcome: Markets anticipate no immediate Fed rate cuts; the upcoming meeting embeds caution, contributing to sideways or bearish trading sentiment
Trade Policy: The US–EU trade agreement (15% tariff framework) plus expected extension of the US–China tariff pause dampen gold’s appeal further
Monetary Policy: No near‑term Fed easing expected; low yields and improving risk sentiment reduce gold’s attractiveness
Trend: Short‑term bearish; gold has broken the rising trendline support at $3,342 and trades below the 21‑day SMA/50-day SMA
Resistance: $3,346 – $3,360 zone (trendline resistance, moving average cluster) acts as critical ceiling. Beyond that, $3,370 and $3,380 look like next hurdles
Support: Near‑term support sits around $3,325–$3,330; a break below $3,310 would expose the $3,283 July low and possibly the $3,254 zone
Forecast: Expect consolidation in the $3,330–$3,345 range. A drop toward $3,310 looks likely unless the USD weakens sharply or trade conflict re‑escalates. Strong break above $3,360 would be needed to signal recovery
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains cautious to bearish. Traders have adopted a ‘sell on strength’ bias, with gold reaching near-oversold RSI readings (~30), yet lacking strong bullish conviction
Catalysts: Key drivers include the outcome of the FOMC meeting (Wed), US non-farm payrolls (NFP), and any twists in US–China trade negotiations. Further easing in the tariff horizon or disappointment in US data could prompt renewed support for gold; conversely, stronger USD or hawkish Fed tones would push it lower.
The U.S. and China look set to extend their tariff pause through mid-November, easing immediate trade tension risks and supporting a broader risk-on shift in markets. While major breakthroughs remain unlikely at this stage, the extension appears to serve as a stabilizing placeholder as both sides continue to negotiate longer-term dispute resolution.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions ease as China and the United States are expected to extend their mutual tariff pause by another 90 days, avoiding the reactivation of punitive measures and preserving the path for ongoing diplomacy.
US Economic Data: Indirectly supports the truce narrative; stable data encourages both parties to avoid disruptions that could destabilize global growth.
FOMC Outcome: While not directly linked, the Fed’s current neutral stance may complement the trade pause by maintaining a stable macro environment.
Trade Policy: The tariff pause, set to expire on August 12, is now poised for a 90-day extension as per reports from SCMP. Talks in Stockholm mark the third round of technical negotiations, underscoring progress despite unresolved issues.
Monetary Policy: No changes in direct response to trade updates, though easing trade tensions reduce the urgency for stimulus from either central bank.
Trend: Risk-on trend favored; equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies react positively to reduced trade uncertainty.
Forecast: The extension is expected to stabilize markets through mid-November, encouraging risk appetite while deferring trade-related volatility.
Market Sentiment: Broadly positive. Markets interpret the extension as a de-escalation step, promoting confidence across global risk assets.
Catalysts: Official confirmation of the 90-day extension, results of the Stockholm negotiations, updates on fentanyl-related tariff issues, and the potential scheduling of a Trump–Xi summit.
The Australian Dollar is finding support amid renewed trade optimism and stabilizing risk sentiment. Trading around 0.6560–0.6570, AUD/USD reflects favorable positioning ahead of Australian CPI data and the US FOMC meeting. Expect sideways-to-positive near-term movement, with key levels at 0.6600 resistance and 0.6520 support.
Geopolitical Risks: Risk sentiment has improved on expectations that the US and China will extend their tariff truce, reinforcing positive momentum for commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
US Economic Data: Resilient US indicators bolster the USD, but clarity around inflation and employment data will influence sentiment ahead of US non-farm payrolls.
FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in the July meeting, delaying cut expectations until September.
Trade Policy: Market participants await outcomes from the Stockholm meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials. Reports suggest a 90-day extension to the tariff pause, benefitting risk assets and commodity currencies.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia is closely watching Q2 CPI data (due Wednesday); any surprise could delay expected RBA rate cuts.
Trend: Short-term bullish; AUD/USD remains in an ascending channel and is trading above the nine-day EMA, with RSI holding above 50 indicating positive momentum.
Resistance: Near-term resistance zone sits around 0.6570–0.6600, with a potential push toward 0.6624, the recent peak.
Support: Immediate support is at the 9-day EMA (~0.6550), with broader support from the 50-day EMA (~0.6520–0.6530).
Forecast: Unless trade talks stall or US data surprises hawkishly, AUD/USD may consolidate within 0.6520–0.6600, with modest upside bias if risk sentiment remains stable.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. Investors are favoring risk assets and commodity-linked currencies, though traders remain wary ahead of key economic releases.
Catalysts: Watch for confirmation of the US–China tariff extension, Sweden (Stockholm) summit outcomes, CPI print from Australia, and US non-farm payrolls and FOMC commentary.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3440, rebounding toward the mid‑1.3400s amid an improved global trade tone. The recent US‑EU trade deal has heightened risk appetite, weighing on the USD’s safe‑haven demand, while traders await key US macro and Fed developments.
Geopolitical Risks: Improved global trade sentiment—via U.S.–EU and U.S.–China trade developments—undermines safe-haven flows into USD and supports GBP.
US Economic Data: Markets await upcoming reports such as Q2 GDP, PCE, and NFP which will shape USD dynamics and GBP/USD direction.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed decision Wednesday is highly anticipated; no change is expected, but rate-cut signals or dovish rhetoric could diminish the USD further.
Trade Policy: The U.S.–EU tariff deal and pending U.S.–China negotiations reinforce a risk-on backdrop, creating tailwinds for GBP/USD.
Monetary Policy: With the BoE likely to signal a rate cut in August amid persistent inflation and softer UK data, GBP gains may be limited.
Trend: Mildly bullish. GBP/USD is maintaining levels above the daily chart’s 100-day EMA, indicating positive momentum on recent upside moves.
Resistance: Key upside targets include 1.3550, then 1.3588 (July 24 high), and 1.3681–1.3725 zone.
Support: Initial support resides around 1.3365 (July 16 low), with further layers near 1.3330 and 1.3236.
Forecast: In absence of fresh bullish catalysts, GBP/USD is likely to consolidate between 1.3360–1.3550, with upside caps unless broader risk sentiment intensifies.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. GBP/USD trades with modest gains and limited conviction, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of major data and central bank events. � stays afloat above the monthly swing low.
Catalysts: Key drivers include the Fed’s decision and communication, U.S. economic releases (GDP, PCE, NFP), updates on U.S.–EU and U.S.–China talks, and incoming UK macro data.
EUR/USD is holding firm above 1.1750, buoyed by renewed optimism following the recently inked US–EU trade agreement. Improved risk sentiment continues to weigh on the US Dollar’s safe‑haven appeal, supporting the euro amid mildly firmer global trade dynamics.
Geopolitical Risks:
Relief over a potential escalation in US–EU trade tensions helps diminish safe-haven flows into USD, especially with the tariff truce signaling broader de‑risking in global markets.
US Economic Data:
Mixed US macro prints bolster the case for sideways USD action; investors are watching upcoming inflation, GDP, and jobs data for signs on Fed policy bias.
FOMC Outcome:
With no change expected at the July meeting, markets are sensitive to tone around rate cuts—any dovish commentary could further pressure USD.
Trade Policy:
The newly announced US–EU trade agreement effectively reduces tariff risks for European exporters, lifting sentiment toward the euro and risk-sensitive assets.
Monetary Policy:
The ECB remains on hold but emphasizes that reduced trade uncertainty may allow future dovish guidance, especially if inflation proves sticky.
Trend: Modestly bullish. EUR/USD is holding above its 50-day EMA, supported by steady momentum and breaking out of a recent consolidation zone.
Resistance: Primary resistance lies near 1.1790–1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 zone.
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.1750, with a secondary layer around 1.1715–1.1700. A break below would invite retests of 1.1670 and the 200-day EMA.
Forecast:Expect a consolidation within 1.1750–1.1800. A sustained break above 1.1800 could open the door toward 1.1850–1.1900. Conversely, failure to hold 1.1750 may trigger a pullback toward 1.1700.
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains constructive, with investors favoring euro and European equities amid fading trade shock risk and a weakening USD.
Catalysts: Key upcoming events include US non-farm payrolls, FOMC commentary, European inflation and PMI data, and any follow-up trade clarification or escalation noise from US–EU and US–China channels.
Trade optimism dominated Monday’s session as the anticipated extension of the US-China tariff pause fueled risk-on sentiment across global markets. This pressured the US Dollar, allowed risk-sensitive currencies to gain traction, and dragged gold prices lower. While the Australian Dollar remained subdued ahead of upcoming negotiations, the Pound and Euro advanced amid broader USD weakness. With key data releases and policy commentary ahead, market participants remain focused on trade diplomacy and its ripple effects across major asset classes.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
The US Dollar extended its rebound on Friday, 2025, buoyed by mixed but generally supportive economic data. This strength pressured gold prices lower and dragged the Australian Dollar further down from recent highs. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar held firm above 0.6000 as risk appetite lingered. In Japan, the Yen saw mild movement, while the Euro held its ground against the Yen following solid Tokyo CPI figures. Market participants are closely watching upcoming US data releases for clues on Fed policy direction.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in the $3,360–$3,365 range, drifting lower for a third straight session amid renewed USD strength. Risk-on sentiment from advancing trade deal prospects continues to suppress demand for safe-haven assets, keeping bullion close to its weekly trough. Despite trade optimism, lingering uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy path has limited further downside pressure.
Geopolitical Risks: Positive developments in US‑Japan and US‑EU trade discussions have diminished risk-off flows, reducing traction for gold as a safe-haven. Emerging regional risks—such as escalating border tensions in Asia—may provide modest intermittent support
US Economic Data: Mixed US macro readings—particularly in labor and services sectors—have kept the dollar buoyant, further weighing on gold prices. Durable goods orders and jobless claims will be closely watched for possible near-term impact.
FOMC Outcome: Ongoing uncertainty over timing and pace of potential rate cuts has prevented sharp USD gains, thereby capping gold losses. Fed skepticism over rate-decision independence may limit directional extremes in currency and metal flows.
Trade Policy: Progress on major trade agreements has reduced geopolitical risk, shifting capital into equities and growth-sensitive assets versus safe-haven metals like gold.
Monetary Policy: With global central banks maintaining dovish to neutral stances, inflationary pressures remain monitored, but lack of hawkish shifts continues to restrain gold upside.
Trend: The short-term trend is mildly bearish, with gold holding below the $3,400 mark and showing a downward bias.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $3,375, followed by $3,400 if bullish reversals gain traction.
Support: Key support zones include $3,355 and the stronger $3,352–$3,350 area near the 100-hour SMA on intraday charts
Forecast: Further USD resilience and fading risk-off sentiment could push gold toward $3,350. A clear break below this level risks a deeper slide toward $3,330–$3,320.
Market Sentiment: Traders are showing risk-on bias, rotating out of hedges like gold and favoring growth-linked assets instead. Caution remains as the Fed meeting nears.
Catalysts: Watch for upcoming US economic indicators (jobless claims, durable goods), ECB rate guidance, US‑China trade developments, and evolving Fed commentary to shape next moves in gold.
The US Dollar Index trades near 97.55, up for a second straight session as mixed US PMI readings and resilient services data buoy the greenback. The USD is gaining traction amid risk-on flows and trade optimism, keeping equity and currency markets on alert.
Geopolitical Risks: Growing optimism over potential US trade agreements with partners like Japan and the EU is shifting capital into the USD, as investors remain cautious without outright risk aversion.
US Economic Data: US flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, signaling contraction, but services PMI rose to 55.2, offsetting risks and reinforcing demand for USD as a balanced play.
FOMC Outcome: With the Fed likely to leave policy unchanged next week, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a September rate cut—keeping short-term USD momentum moderately resilient.
Trade Policy: Progress in trade talks is supporting global risk sentiment, but residual threats of tariffs also prompt safe-haven interest in USD.
Monetary Policy: A steady Fed and sticky inflation expectations continue to underpin the dollar, with markets expecting monetary policy divergence sooner rather than later.
Trend: DXY is showing a bullish bias as it consolidates above the recent support zone near 97.50, signaling strong near-term appetite for USD.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies in the 97.80–98.00 zone—its next significant hurdle given prior technical confluence.
Support: Near-term support is anchored at 97.50, where the 9-day EMA and recent support lines help buffer downside pressure.
Forecast: If US data continues to show strength in services or trade news stays constructive, DXY could test higher near 98.00. A drop beneath 97.50 might expose levels toward 97.00.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic—supportive of USD amid mixed macroeconomic readings and trade optimism, but still bounded due to looming tariff uncertainty.
Catalysts: Key upcoming US economic releases—such as durable goods data, S&P Global PMIs, and labor reports—alongside FOMC minutes and trade developments will be critical to the dollar’s next directional move.
AUD/USD retreated to around 0.6570, pulling back from recent eight-month highs near 0.6625–0.6630. The decline reflects renewed strength in the US Dollar amid trade-related developments and profit-taking following a week of strong Aussie gains.
Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around potential new U.S. tariffs and evolving trade negotiations—especially involving China and Japan—has raised investor caution, increasing safe-haven flows into the USD.
US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. PMI figures and resilient services data have reinforced demand for the dollar, limiting AUD/USD’s upside and contributing to downward pressure on the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Markets anticipate a steady Fed policy path into next month, keeping yields elevated and supporting USD strength—thus weighing on derived risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
Trade Policy: While optimism over trade deals lifted AUD earlier in week, the emergence of U.S. tariff letters and evolving bilateral trade clarity has shifted sentiment. This has created a dual headwind: EUR/JPY and USD/CNY moves also reflect the uncertain trade backdrop.
Monetary Policy: Despite strong domestic PMI data, the Reserve Bank of Australia has signaled caution, delaying any rate cut decision and reinforcing AUD’s sensitivity to external USD-positive pressures.
Trend: The short-term trend has turned bearish as the pair retreats from swing highs around 0.6625–0.6630, now consolidating nearer 0.6570.
Resistance: Resistance is near 0.6600–0.6625, which recently marked the breakout to an eight‑month peak.
Support: Immediate support lies at 0.6550, followed by 0.6520, which aligns with the 9-day EMA and previous higher lows.
Forecast: If the USD remains buoyant and U.S. trade uncertainties persist, AUD/USD could gravitate toward 0.6520–0.6500. Holding above 0.6550 would keep the outlook cautiously neutral, pending fresh trade or RBA cues.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment has flipped from risk-on to neutral-cautious toward AUD, reflecting profit-taking after a strong rally and renewed USD demand.
Catalysts: Key drivers ahead include Australian PMI updates, the next tranche of U.S. tariff letters, RBA commentary, and global risk indicators. Investor focus is also on upcoming U.S. durable goods and PPI releases.
NZD/USD is trading near 0.6035, maintaining gains above the 0.6000 threshold amid broad trade optimism. Improved sentiment related to ongoing US-China and broader global trade talks continues to support the Kiwi, while the US Dollar remains relatively soft at present.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing trade tensions—such as potential tariff extensions between the US and China—are positively impacting risk sentiment, which favors the NZD over USD. Continued progress in bilateral deals, especially involving New Zealand’s major trading partners, provides additional support.
US Economic Data: Mixed readings, including a flash manufacturing PMI at 49.5 but a stronger services PMI of 55.2, have kept the USD rangebound and allowed the Kiwi to outperform.
FOMC Outcome: With markets pricing in around a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, USD demand remains muted, aiding NZD gains.
Trade Policy: Optimism around potential US-Japan and US-EU tariff cap agreements (around 15%) is uplifting sentiment and bolstering export-linked currencies like the NZD.
Monetary Policy: Though domestic CPI has cooled, keeping the RBNZ dovish, NZD is benefiting from external trade dynamics rather than firm local policy shifts.
Trend: The short-term trend is positive, marked by a solid break and hold above the 0.6000 psychological level.
Resistance: Near-term resistance resides at 0.6055, with the next zone around 0.6070–0.6100 if trade-positive catalysts persist.
Support: Key support lies at 0.6000, followed by a lower zone around 0.5975–0.5950, where previous consolidation occurred.
Forecast: Sustained risk-on conditions and positive trade developments may push NZD/USD toward 0.6100. A drop below 0.6000 would risk reversing momentum and inviting deeper pullbacks.
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment remains upbeat, with traders favoring pro-growth and trade-exposed currencies like the Kiwi, especially in the absence of renewed USD strength.
Catalysts: Key upcoming events include US durable goods data, PMI indices, further trade negotiation developments—especially involving China—and RBNZ commentary that may influence Kiwi performance.
EUR/JPY remains anchored near 173.10, extending gains for a seventh consecutive session as softer Tokyo inflation tempers expectations for immediate BoJ tightening. Broad USD weakness, amid upbeat trade sentiment and optimistic equity flows, has lifted the cross, while the euro benefits from firm-side European data.
Geopolitical Risks:
Softer inflation data in Japan, coupled with domestic political uncertainty, has dimmed appetite for the yen in safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, trade optimism is tilting sentiment toward growth assets.
US Economic Data:
Mixed U.S. figures continue to weigh on the dollar, enabling EUR/JPY to maintain elevated levels while providing a favorable backdrop for euro-zone exposure.
FOMC Outcome:
Moderate U.S. rate views and reduced upside for the dollar are contributing to EUR strength against the yen and USD alike.
Trade Policy:
Progress in bilateral trade negotiations, particularly U.S.–Japan developments, is enhancing risk appetite and boosting EUR/JPY momentum.
Monetary Policy:
The BoJ remains cautious despite persistent inflation above the 2% target, implying delayed rate action—supporting EUR/JPY upside via yield differential.
Trend: EUR/JPY retains a bullish structure, trading above the 100-day EMA with confirmed higher highs and lows.
Resistance: Resistance comes into play at 173.50, with the next potential target around 174.50–175.00 if momentum persists.
Support: Support lies near 172.80, followed by more substantial support at 172.00–171.00, where buyers have historically emerged.
Forecast:Unless fresh yen-strengthening catalysts emerge, EUR/JPY may attempt a run toward 174.00–174.50. However, overbought conditions suggest potential consolidation near current levels.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment remains intact, favoring cross-currencies like EUR/JPY amid broader USD softness and reduced yen demand.
Catalysts: Upcoming Japanese national CPI data, further Tokyo regional inflation updates, U.S. macro releases, and trade headlines—especially U.S.–Japan dialogues—will influence the next directional leg.
Overall, the Dollar’s renewed momentum dominated Friday’s session, sending gold prices lower and weighing on key commodity-linked currencies like the AUD. NZD managed to stay resilient, while EUR/JPY remained supported post-CPI. With market focus turning toward upcoming inflation figures and central bank commentary, volatility is likely to persist into the weekend.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Markets edged higher on Thursday as renewed optimism around global trade negotiations fueled risk-on sentiment. The US Dollar broadly weakened, allowing the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar to gain ground. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen held firm near two-week highs, and Silver prices dropped toward $39.00 amid fading safe-haven demand. The PBOC’s stronger Yuan fix further signaled cautious confidence from Chinese policymakers.
Silver has dropped toward $39.00, sliding from recent highs as investor optimism around global trade deals reduces safe-haven demand. Despite underlying industrial usage, lack of risk-off momentum and a weaker USD are exerting downward pressure on the metal’s price.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened optimism surrounding trade negotiations, particularly between the US and its key partners, is sapping demand for safe-haven assets like silver. With fewer geopolitical scares on the horizon, riskier assets are winning trader preference, pushing metals lower.
US Economic Data: Recent US data has been mixed, leaving the dollar somewhat subdued, which typically supports silver. However, the improved trade outlook has had a more dominant effect, overrunning short-term dollar weakness.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s steady tone and lack of hawkish surprises this week are keeping silver near range lows as traders refocus on growth and trade, rather than policy shifts.
Trade Policy: Renewed positivity around trade deals has curbed the recent rally in precious metals, as the perceived need for hedging resides in better economic conditions—not uncertainty.
Monetary Policy: With global central banks maintaining dovish or neutral stances and inflation ticking lower, silver’s appeal is dampened without strong catalysts to drive a move higher.
Trend: Silver is currently in a short-term downtrend, supported only by higher-timeframe moving averages near $38.50, signaling cautious tone among traders.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at $39.40, with a more significant barrier at $39.80, where bulls would need to break through to regain upward momentum.
Support: Immediate support lies at $38.70, followed by $38.20—a break below this levels increases the chance of a drop toward $38.00.
Forecast: Silver is likely to continue drifting lower if global trade optimism holds firm. A sustained push below $38.50 could confirm a short-term bearish path toward $38.00.
Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment has swung from cautious to more optimistic on trade news, diminishing appetite for protection via precious metals. Silver is trading lower as capital rotates toward equities and cyclical assets.
Catalysts: Watch for fresh trade agreement headlines, US economic releases like PMI or CPI data, and any unexpected central bank commentary that could shift risk sentiment and influence silver pricing.
GBP/USD extended its gains to around 1.3850, surging on the back of renewed optimism over global trade agreements. The British Pound was heavily supported by a weaker US Dollar, as investors increasingly position for improved market sentiment and risk appetite.
Geopolitical Risks: Diminishing concerns over imminent trade disputes have reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, favoring pro-risk currencies like GBP. The upbeat global trade narrative is reinforcing investor confidence in growth-sensitive assets.
US Economic Data: Recent data has shown signs of cooling, dulling the USD’s rally and giving the Pound room to rally. Weakness in US inflation and retail figures this week has supported the move.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s neutral tone and lack of hawkish commentary have further undermined the greenback, tilting currency flows toward higher-yielding and risk-exposed assets.
Trade Policy: Positive signals around US-UK and broader global trade coordination are acting as a tailwind for GBP. Market sentiment reflects growing confidence in smoother trade flows ahead.
Monetary Policy: The BoE’s cautious approach, combined with a delayed Fed, enhances GBP attractiveness—especially in a market leaning toward growth and trade.
Trend: GBP/USD is in a strong uptrend, having broken through multiple resistance levels in the past week, making a bullish structure intact.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 1.3880, with a key psychological target at 1.3900.
Support: Support lies at 1.3800, followed by 1.3750, providing a buffer for any pullbacks.
Forecast: As long as the pair maintains above 1.3800, the upside momentum is likely to persist. Sustained trade optimism could push it toward 1.3900+.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment is supporting GBP flows as traders rotate out of the USD into growth-centric currencies. The Pound benefits significantly from the broader risk-friendly mood.
Catalysts: Key drivers for near-term moves include trade headlines, UK economic releases, and any Fed commentary that may alter USD strength dynamics.
NZD/USD surged past the 0.6050 level as renewed optimism around global trade negotiations powered risk sentiment. The New Zealand Dollar gained traction on the back of strong demand for higher-yielding currencies and a broad-based pullback in the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Better-than-expected progress in global trade talks, especially involving China and the US, has lifted regional currencies like the NZD amid risk-on sentiment. With uncertainties receding, safe-haven flows are diminishing, further supporting the kiwi.
US Economic Data: Moderate US macro readings this week have eased inflationary concerns, weakening the dollar and providing a constructive backdrop for NZD gains.
FOMC Outcome: Fed officials’ cautious tone continues to temper the greenback’s momentum, helping the NZD/USD cross hold firm above key levels.
Trade Policy: Strengthened trade sentiment is particularly favorable for the export-heavy New Zealand economy, enhancing NZD appeal relative to other currencies.
Monetary Policy: With the RBNZ maintaining its current stance, the NZD’s appeal remains strongly tied to external factors like trade optimism, which currently paints a favorable picture.
Trend: NZD/USD is forming a bullish channel, marked by successive higher highs and lows in recent sessions.
Resistance: The pair faces resistance around 0.6070, with potential upside extending toward 0.6100 if momentum continues.
Support: Key support levels lie at 0.6020, followed by 0.5990, which could serve as entry zones for buyers during pullbacks.
Forecast: A continued positive trade agenda could propel NZD/USD toward 0.6100, but a rejection at 0.6070 may trigger a temporary pullback toward 0.6020–0.6000.
Market Sentiment: Market mood remains strongly risk-on, with investors favoring currencies tied to growth and trade flows, including the kiwi.
Catalysts: Watch for developments in US-China trade dialogues, Australian/NZD inflation releases, and any major shifts in global risk sentiment—all of which could drive further movement in NZD/USD.
USD/CNY is trading near 7.1400 after the PBOC set the reference rate at 7.1385, a modestly stronger level compared to 7.1414 yesterday. The slight adjustment underscores the central bank’s intention to stabilize the yuan as global trade optimism and USD softness continue to influence markets.
Geopolitical Risks: While US‑China trade optimism remains in play, broader geopolitical tensions still loom, prompting cautious currency guidance from Beijing to temper volatility.
US Economic Data: Mixed US macro signals have softened demand for the dollar, but the PBoC’s intervention limits yuan appreciation even during risk-on moves.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s neutral-to-dovish messaging continues to depress the USD, but China’s central bank is tactfully preventing yuan overstrength.
Trade Policy: Ongoing progress in trade discussions adds risk-positive vibes to China’s currency, but Beijing is actively intervening to maintain controlled appreciation.
Monetary Policy: The PBoC remains in a cautionary mode, combining liquidity support domestically with FX stabilization to ensure orderly yuan trading.
Trend: USD/CNY is in a neutral band between 7.1360–7.1460, reflecting PBoC’s tight references and sticky USD dynamics.
Resistance: Resistance lies at 7.1460, the previous fix, with major upside capped around 7.1500.
Support: Key support is near 7.1360, followed by a deeper floor around 7.1300.
Forecast: The yuan is set to trade within the current range unless fresh trade developments or PBoC guidance shift sentiment—being managed to avoid extremes.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously optimistic; traders welcome trade progress but are wary of policy intervention limiting yuan moves.
Catalysts: Watch for PBoC statements, Chinese economic releases, and US trade headlines for cues on whether the band will expand or remain constrained.
USD/JPY hit a two‑week low around 156.20, reflecting renewed Japanese Yen strength amid broad USD weakness driven by positive trade sentiment. The domestic currency continues to attract demand as investors rotate out of safe-haven USD into regional currency beneficiaries of risk-on momentum.
Geopolitical Risks:
With no significant global risk events currently unfolding, traders are more focused on carry-driven flows and regional optimism, with limited safe‑haven demand for USD.
US Economic Data:
Mixed US releases this week have softened expectations for further Fed tightening, weakening the USD and indirectly supporting Yen appreciation.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s recently cautious tone reinforces the pattern of USD sluggishness, allowing other currencies like the JPY to benefit.
Trade Policy:
Progress in US-China trade talks is lifting risk-on sentiment globally, which typically leads to USD selling and supports JPY strength in certain carry trade unwinds.
Monetary Policy:
The Bank of Japan’s ongoing ultra‑dovish stance contrasts with slightly softer USD, making yield differentials less relevant in today’s environment—yen appreciation reflects broader FX sentiment instead.
Trend: The short-term trend is bullish for JPY (bearish for USD/JPY) as the pair has broken below recent consolidation around 157.00.
Resistance: Resistance for USD/JPY now sits at 157.00, then 157.50, where old support levels may act as barriers.
Support: Initial support is at 156.00, with the next level seen near 155.50 should momentum continue.
Forecast: If risk appetite remains elevated and USD weakness persists, USD/JPY could test further downside toward the 155.50–156.00 zone before stabilizing.
Market Sentiment: Market sentiment remains risk-on, favoring cyclical and regional currencies over USD as carry trade flows adjust.
Catalysts: Upcoming US labor market data and any renewed global trade headlines will be key in determining if USD/JPY maintains its current downward move.
Risk appetite returned to markets as trade optimism pushed the US Dollar lower and lifted key currencies like the Yen, Kiwi, and Sterling. Commodity moves mirrored this shift, with Silver pulling back as investors rotated away from safety. All eyes now turn to upcoming trade developments and key US economic data that may set the tone for the week ahead.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Markets traded with mixed momentum on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, as optimism surrounding renewed US-China trade talks lifted risk sentiment, supporting the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened sharply amid political uncertainty at home. WTI crude extended its losses below $65.50 on lingering demand concerns, while the PBOC’s slightly stronger CNY fix signaled a cautious policy stance.
AUD/JPY extended gains on Tuesday, trading near the 96.50 mark as broad-based Yen weakness drove the cross higher. However, the pair struggled to find momentum above mid-96.00s amid cautious risk appetite and lack of fresh bullish triggers.
Geopolitical Risks: Japanese domestic political instability continues to weigh on the Yen, with concerns over leadership approval ratings and policy continuity dampening safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Softer US indicators have reduced expectations of immediate Fed tightening, prompting a general risk-on tone that favors yield-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed commentary has shifted investor preference toward higher-yielding assets, reducing demand for safe havens such as the Yen.
Trade Policy: Positive developments in US-China negotiations are boosting optimism in the Asia-Pacific region, which indirectly benefits the AUD.
Monetary Policy: Divergence between the RBA’s cautious tone and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose stance continues to widen, keeping upward pressure on the cross.
Trend: The short-term bias remains bullish but appears to be losing steam as the pair hits strong resistance.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 96.80, followed by 97.20 if momentum resumes.
Support: Key support is seen at 95.90, with a deeper pullback exposing 95.50.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may remain elevated but lacks clear follow-through above 96.50–97.00, suggesting consolidation unless fresh catalysts emerge.
Market Sentiment: Overall sentiment favors risk assets, but hesitation at higher levels reflects underlying caution in the FX space.
Catalysts: A surprise in Japanese macro data or any shift in BOJ rhetoric could trigger renewed Yen strength, while further trade optimism may lift AUD/JPY above recent highs.
AUD/USD climbed to 0.6785 on Tuesday, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade negotiations. A broadly weaker US Dollar and upbeat regional sentiment helped the Aussie extend its recent rebound, although near-term resistance capped further upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing tensions between the US and China have brightened the outlook for Australian exports, given Australia’s trade dependence on China.
US Economic Data: Weaker US PMI and consumer data reduced bets on Fed hawkishness, dragging the greenback lower and providing a tailwind for AUD/USD.
FOMC Outcome: Markets are increasingly pricing in a policy pause or potential rate cuts in late 2025, placing downward pressure on the USD.
Trade Policy: Positive progress in US-China trade dialogue has improved risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets, boosting AUD as a pro-growth currency.
Monetary Policy: RBA’s reluctance to ease despite global dovish tilt adds resilience to AUD, especially against a softening USD.
Trend: The pair is recovering from last week’s lows, showing early signs of a bullish reversal.
Resistance: Key resistance is located at 0.6800, followed by 0.6845, which coincides with the 100-day MA.
Support: Initial support lies at 0.6740, with further downside limited to 0.6700 unless sentiment turns.
Forecast: AUD/USD may aim for a test of the 0.6800–0.6840 zone if trade optimism holds and the USD stays weak.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on flows are favoring commodity currencies like the AUD, while USD softness continues to amplify the move.
Catalysts: Any further breakthroughs in US-China negotiations or dovish Fed commentary could drive fresh upside in AUD/USD.
USD/JPY rebounded sharply to 157.85, reversing earlier losses after hitting a two-week low near 156.20. The sudden yen sell-off was driven by heightened political uncertainty in Japan and firmer U.S. yields, which halted safe-haven flows.
Geopolitical Risks: Domestic political instability in Japan raised investor caution, undermining demand for the yen despite global risk aversion.
US Economic Data: Resilient U.S. PMI and housing data pushed Treasury yields higher, boosting USD/JPY as interest rate differentials widened.
FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed rhetoric continues to support the USD, especially against currencies like the yen that are tethered to ultra-loose monetary policy.
Trade Policy: Little trade-related news directly impacting JPY, but overall sentiment around global growth continues to affect safe-haven dynamics.
Monetary Policy: BoJ maintains dovish stance, with no indication of rate hikes, further weakening the yen versus USD, which remains yield-attractive.
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a broader uptrend despite recent volatility.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 158.20, followed by 159.00, a level tested earlier this month.
Support: Initial support is seen near 157.00, with stronger demand around the 156.20 recent low.
Forecast: USD/JPY may resume its climb toward 158.50–159.00 if U.S. yields continue to rise and Japanese political concerns persist.
Market Sentiment: Risk appetite is moderately supported by U.S. data, but yen sentiment is fragile amid Japan’s political uncertainty.
Catalysts: Developments in Japanese leadership stability and further moves in U.S. yields will steer near-term direction in USD/JPY.
USD/CNY trades near 7.1490 after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.1414, slightly stronger than the previous fix of 7.1460. The central bank’s action shows continued efforts to manage yuan stability amid ongoing economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Geopolitical Risks: Lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade and tech tensions remain, but no fresh escalation has surfaced.
US Economic Data: Firm U.S. data supports the dollar, keeping USD/CNY elevated despite the PBoC’s attempts to slow depreciation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s hawkish stance maintains pressure on the yuan as U.S.-China rate differentials stay wide.
Trade Policy: Progress in U.S.-China trade talks has marginally improved sentiment, but structural tensions persist.
Monetary Policy: PBoC remains accommodative with targeted stimulus, while keeping FX interventions subtle to prevent sharp yuan declines.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bullish bias for USD/CNY as the pair holds above 7.1400.
Resistance: Upside barriers appear at 7.1550, then 7.1620.
Support: Immediate support sits at the 7.1400 level, followed by the 7.1300 zone.
Forecast: USD/CNY may remain range-bound between 7.1400–7.1600, as the PBoC manages volatility while the USD remains underpinned.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism on China’s recovery and trade progress is tempered by U.S. dollar strength and policy divergence.
Catalysts: Further PBoC moves, incoming Chinese data, and U.S. rate expectations will shape next direction for USD/CNY.
WTI crude oil slid to $65.30, extending its decline amid mounting concerns over global oil demand. Weak industrial data from China and rising U.S. inventories have pressured prices lower, with traders reassessing the outlook for energy consumption in the second half of 2025.
Global Supply Concerns: Middle East tensions remain subdued, offering limited support to prices.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating US-China tariff concerns revive demand-side caution.
US Economic Data:
Rising stockpiles and softer gasoline demand from EIA reports suggest weaker short-term consumption.
FOMC Outcome:
Hawkish Fed tone reinforces recession fears, dampening oil demand outlook.
Trade Policy:
Uncertainty over U.S.-China trade dynamics adds to the cautious sentiment in commodity markets.
Trend: Bearish; WTI has broken below key support zones and shows no signs of a reversal yet.
Resistance: First resistance at $66.20, followed by $67.50.
Support: Initial support lies at $65.00, with next levels near $63.40.
Market Sentiment: Risk-averse as demand signals weaken and macroeconomic outlook dims.
Catalysts: Next EIA inventory data, Chinese manufacturing PMIs, and geopolitical surprises will be crucial for price direction.
In summary, risk-on flows dominated the session, helping commodity currencies like the Aussie extend gains, while safe-haven assets such as the Yen came under pressure. Oil’s continued slump reflected persistent demand uncertainty, but overall market sentiment improved slightly as trade optimism resurfaced. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming macro data and central bank cues for further direction.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Global markets opened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors weighed U.S.-EU trade tensions, signs of global supply pressures in oil markets, and fresh rate cut speculation from New Zealand. The U.S. Dollar held firm near the 98.00 level on the DXY, while commodity currencies like the NZD and WTI crude faced renewed selling pressure. Euro remained resilient, underpinned by diplomatic unease, while the Chinese yuan reference rate from the PBOC indicated a stable but watchful stance.
The US Dollar Index remains steady around 98.00, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid limited risk appetite and mixed macroeconomic signals. The greenback is holding firm as traders await more clarity on upcoming economic data and central bank cues.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in global trade relations, particularly between the US and China, are fostering a defensive market stance. Investors continue to favor the US dollar as a safe-haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
US Economic Data: A lack of significant economic releases this week has kept the dollar rangebound. Traders are looking ahead to PMI and GDP figures later in the week for potential directional cues.
FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve’s recent cautious commentary has reinforced expectations of a prolonged pause in rate hikes. This has helped anchor the dollar within a tight band despite volatility in other asset classes.
Trade Policy: Concerns about a slowdown in trade activity and looming tariff disputes are maintaining investor wariness. These factors indirectly support the dollar by limiting risk-taking behavior across global markets.
Monetary Policy: With inflation data showing signs of cooling, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Markets are pricing in fewer chances of another hike in the near term, but sticky inflation remains a wildcard.
Trend: The short-term trend is neutral-to-bullish with price consolidating above key support levels. The dollar index is attempting to base around the 97.75 zone.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at 98.30, followed by 98.65 if bullish momentum returns.
Support: Key support levels are identified at 97.75 and 97.50, where recent buyers have emerged.
Forecast: As long as the index holds above 97.75, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. A daily close above 98.30 could open the door to retest higher resistance zones.
Market Sentiment: raders are maintaining a neutral stance with slight risk aversion, favoring the dollar as a protective play. Sentiment will remain cautious unless a strong economic trigger emerges.
Catalysts: Upcoming US PMI data, comments from Fed officials, and developments in global trade negotiations are the primary short-term catalysts. Any surprises could trigger renewed volatility in the dollar.
NZD/USD trades under pressure, slipping below the 0.5950 mark as cautious risk sentiment dominates market flows. The kiwi dollar faces headwinds from global growth concerns, weak Chinese demand signals, and lackluster domestic momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Softer economic data from China—New Zealand’s top trading partner—raises fresh concerns about the regional outlook. This continues to dampen investor confidence in the NZD.
US Economic Data: With the US Dollar staying firm on safe-haven demand, riskier currencies like the kiwi are feeling the squeeze, especially with no strong local data to support NZD.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance offers the USD continued underlying strength, as rate cut expectations are delayed. This puts downward pressure on the kiwi in relative terms.
Trade Policy: Concerns around global trade slowdown, particularly in Asia-Pacific, weigh heavily on the export-reliant New Zealand economy.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains in a wait-and-see mode, with rate cuts unlikely in the short term, yet growth struggles keep outlook mixed.
Trend: Short-term bearish with lower highs forming since late last week.
Resistance: Upside capped near 0.5985, followed by 0.6010.
Support: Key levels to watch include 0.5920 and then 0.5890.
Forecast: A close below 0.5920 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.5890 or lower. Bulls need to reclaim 0.5980+ to reverse the bias.
Market Sentiment: Risk-averse tone continues to pressure the kiwi as traders avoid high-beta currencies in favor of stability.
Catalysts: Upcoming US PMI numbers, any surprise RBNZ commentary, and developments in China’s economic stimulus measures could be potential movers.
EUR/USD remains firm near the 1.1700 level after earlier gains, as traders weigh growing trade tensions between the US and EU against broad USD caution. Despite geopolitical friction, the euro continues to benefit from relatively stable European data and hawkish ECB signals.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating trade friction between the US and EU over subsidies and digital tax policy injects uncertainty into market outlooks, though the euro remains resilient.
US Economic Data: Soft US manufacturing and consumer confidence figures this week have limited further upside in the dollar, allowing EUR/USD to consolidate near highs.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious tone reinforces expectations of no immediate policy shift, capping USD upside and favoring euro stability.
Trade Policy: New trade levies being considered by the US against European goods have not yet spooked markets broadly but remain a key risk event in the coming sessions.
Monetary Policy: ECB policymakers have held a firmer line on inflation control, contrasting slightly with the Fed’s dovish tilt, which supports EUR buying near dips.
Trend: Short-term bullish as price holds above the 20-day EMA and reclaims former resistance.
Resistance: Initial cap at 1.1725, with a breakout targeting 1.1760.
Support: Immediate support seen at 1.1675, then 1.1630.
Forecast: If EUR/USD sustains above 1.1700, bulls may target 1.1760. A break below 1.1670 would shift short-term momentum back to neutral.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic in the eurozone, though trade risks limit aggressive bullish positioning.
Catalysts: Upcoming Eurozone PMI data and any fresh trade rhetoric from Washington could significantly impact price direction.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1460 on Monday, stronger than the prior fix of 7.1522 and also firmer than market expectations. The move signals ongoing official resistance to yuan depreciation, as authorities attempt to stabilize the currency amid capital outflow risks and persistent economic softness.
Geopolitical Risks: US-China diplomatic tensions continue to simmer, but markets remain focused on currency management and domestic Chinese economic performance.
US Economic Data: Muted US data this week reduced upward pressure on the dollar, giving China room to guide the yuan higher without risking disruptive capital shifts.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook caps USD gains, allowing the PBOC to maintain its tightening bias on the yuan fix.
Trade Policy: Beijing’s approach appears to be discouraging aggressive depreciation, possibly to avoid reigniting trade friction with Washington.
Monetary Policy: While the PBOC has maintained an accommodative stance, it continues to manage the yuan fix tightly to project financial stability and confidence.
Trend: Mildly bearish for USD/CNY as fixings suggest downside pressure.
Resistance: Short-term resistance near 7.1550, with a breach likely to invite PBOC intervention.
Support: Initial support seen at 7.1400; stronger support lies at 7.1300.
Forecast: USD/CNY may trade in a narrow 7.1400–7.1550 band unless stronger directional drivers emerge from data or PBOC shifts.
Market Sentiment: Stable-to-cautious, as investors weigh China’s recovery trajectory against central bank support for the yuan.
Catalysts: Upcoming Chinese PMI data, fiscal stimulus signals, and global USD trends will influence next moves.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell toward $65.50 as concerns resurfaced about rising global supply and renewed trade tensions, dampening sentiment across the oil market. A stronger US Dollar and tariff-related fears further weighed on oil prices.
Global Supply Concerns: Rising OPEC+ output and resilient US production raise oversupply risks.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating US-China tariff concerns revive demand-side caution.
US Dollar Strength:
A firmer DXY limits upside for USD-denominated commodities like crude.
Demand Outlook:
Slowing global manufacturing activity weakens oil demand expectations.
Inventory Data Ahead: Traders await fresh EIA stockpile figures for directional cues.
Trend: Bearish
Resistance: $66.80 / $68.00
Support: $65.20 / $64.00
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as traders react to both supply-side pressures and macroeconomic signals.
Catalysts: EIA inventory report, US-China trade rhetoric, global demand forecasts.
Today’s sentiment reflects a delicate balance between geopolitical risks and central bank expectations. With oil pulling back and currency markets reacting to inflation prints and trade headlines, investors remain risk-averse heading into midweek. Continued developments in rate outlooks and diplomatic friction will be key catalysts for the next moves across currencies, commodities, and global equities.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Gold prices extended their upward momentum on Monday, trading near the $3,350 mark as global trade tensions and cautious risk sentiment spurred demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar remained mixed across major pairs, reflecting investor hesitation amid uncertainty over potential tariffs and sluggish economic signals. Meanwhile, other major currencies like the euro and the British pound struggled to gain traction, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars held firm despite external pressures. As markets digest geopolitical and economic cues, traders await further clarity from upcoming central bank decisions and macro releases.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with mild gains near $3,350 as investors seek safety amid escalating global trade tensions and soft USD performance. The precious metal continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal, particularly as markets brace for possible shifts in international tariffs and economic policy.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising concerns about a potential breakdown in global trade negotiations, particularly between the US and EU, have heightened market anxiety, pushing investors toward gold.
US Economic Data: Recent economic indicators in the US have shown mixed results, increasing uncertainty over the Fed’s next move, which in turn supports gold prices.
FOMC Outcome: Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming FOMC communications, expecting a more dovish stance that could weaken the dollar further.
Trade Policy: Heightened speculation about the introduction or expansion of trade levies between major economies has underpinned safe-haven demand
Monetary Policy: With inflation appearing sticky and the global economic outlook softening, central banks may opt for prolonged accommodative policies, bolstering gold.
Trend: Bullish momentum persists as gold holds above key moving averages.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at $3,370, with stronger resistance near $3,400.
Support: Key support lies at $3,320, followed by $3,300.
Forecast: A sustained break above $3,370 could signal further upside, especially if global tensions intensify.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains risk-off, favoring defensive assets like gold amid market uncertainty.
Catalysts: Developments in trade negotiations, key US economic releases, and central bank rhetoric will be closely watched as primary market movers.
GBP/USD is hovering around the 1.3400 level, consolidating after recent declines that brought it near a two-month low. The pair remains under pressure due to a firm US Dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic releases from both the UK and US.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal, with no new UK-EU tensions affecting trade outlook.
US Economic Data: Mixed US indicators are providing limited direction to the pair.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed tone has capped USD strength but hasn’t reversed GBP losses.
Trade Policy: Ongoing global tariff concerns continue to support safe-haven flows into the USD.
Monetary Policy: Markets expect the Bank of England to maintain a cautious approach amid soft inflation data.
Trend: Bearish bias persists as the pair remains below the 100-day EMA.
Resistance: 1.3440 followed by 1.3485.
Support: 1.3360 and 1.3300 remain key downside levels.
Forecast: GBP/USD may continue rangebound trading with a bearish tilt unless bulls reclaim the 1.3440 resistance area.
Market Sentiment: Bearish to neutral; traders are wary of further GBP weakness if UK economic indicators disappoint.
Catalysts: Focus will be on UK PMI and US jobless claims for directional cues later this week.
NZD/USD is trading subdued near 0.5950 after failing to rebound from overnight losses. The pair remains pressured as investors digest a softer-than-expected CPI print from New Zealand and the PBoC’s cautious policy stance, which reinforced the broader risk-off mood across Asia-Pacific markets.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitical tension, but sentiment is fragile amid lingering trade worries.
US Economic Data: Steady US data supports the Dollar, adding pressure to the Kiwi.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s dovish stance has had limited impact on NZD amid stronger USD demand.
Trade Policy: PBoC’s conservative yuan fix signals concern over capital outflows and weak domestic demand, adding pressure to risk-sensitive currencies.
Monetary Policy: RBNZ is expected to remain on hold following soft CPI data, reducing rate hike bets further.
Trend: Bearish below the 200-day moving average.
Resistance: 0.5985 and 0.6020.
Support: 0.5920 and 0.5880.
Forecast: The pair could slip further toward the 0.5900 zone if risk sentiment weakens and US Dollar strength persists.
Market Sentiment: Bearish; traders are cautious on the Kiwi after disappointing inflation data and tepid Chinese demand signals.
Catalysts: Upcoming US housing and PMI figures could provide the next directional impulse.
USD/CAD is trading resiliently above the 1.3700 mark as markets remain cautious amid persistent tariff-related uncertainties. The Canadian Dollar is weighed down by weaker crude oil prices and limited domestic data, while the Greenback stays supported by a broadly risk-averse environment.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising global trade tensions, particularly between the US and key partners, continue to inject caution into markets.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from the US economy support USD’s safe-haven appeal.
FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s latest signals of a “wait-and-see” approach have limited impact as risk sentiment drives USD strength.
Trade Policy: Ongoing uncertainty around US tariff plans has kept traders wary, indirectly benefiting the USD.
Monetary Policy: The BoC remains sidelined with no immediate signs of policy shifts, while the Fed’s steady tone favors the status quo.
Trend: Bullish while above 1.3680 support zone.
Resistance: 1.3745 and 1.3800.
Support: 1.3680 and 1.3630.
Forecast: USD/CAD could aim for 1.3800 if risk aversion deepens and oil prices remain weak.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish on USD/CAD; broader sentiment favors safe havens.
Catalysts: Focus turns to US retail and housing data; energy price movements could also influence CAD performance.
EUR/USD is edging lower toward the 1.1600 mark as traders adopt a cautious stance amid persistent trade uncertainty between the US and the EU. The pair remains under pressure following softer Eurozone economic data, while the US Dollar benefits from a flight to safety.
Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing US-EU trade tensions and broader global tariff concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.
US Economic Data: The Dollar finds support from relatively stable macroeconomic readings and risk-off flows.
FOMC Outcome: Fed officials remain data-dependent, but their neutral stance supports USD strength amid trade worries.
Trade Policy: Worries over potential EU-targeted US tariffs are dampening demand for the Euro.
Monetary Policy: The ECB is expected to stay dovish as inflation pressures cool, widening the policy divergence with the Fed.
Trend: Bearish bias below 1.1645 resistance.
Resistance: 1.1645 and 1.1680.
Support: 1.1600 and 1.1550.
Market Sentiment: Bearish on EUR/USD; traders prefer USD as uncertainty clouds the outlook.
Catalysts: Eyes on Eurozone HICP data, upcoming EU trade talks, and US macro releases for direction.
Gold remains supported by persistent global trade uncertainty and a softening USD backdrop, while other major pairs reflect mixed sentiment driven by local economic data and policy speculation. With key inflation figures and central bank rhetoric on the horizon, market direction may hinge on fresh catalysts. Traders are likely to stay cautious, keeping gold and USD-sensitive pairs in tight focus heading into the week.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
The US Dollar lost ground across the board on Thursday after a series of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials triggered a shift in market sentiment. The EUR/USD pushed above the 1.1600 level, the GBP/USD approached 1.3450, and the AUD extended gains, all reflecting a broad retreat in risk aversion and renewed demand for higher-yielding currencies. Meanwhile, remarks from China’s Commerce Minister hinted at stabilization in US-China trade relations, further boosting confidence in global economic recovery.
EUR/USD surged above the 1.1600 level on Thursday, supported by a broad decline in risk aversion following dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials. The softer Fed stance reduced expectations for further tightening, leading to a weakening in the US Dollar. In turn, the euro capitalized on the improved sentiment across financial markets. Traders are now watching upcoming Eurozone inflation figures and further Fedspeak.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, with no fresh Eurozone tensions.
US Economic Data: Softer outlook after dovish Fed signals.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish remarks lowered rate hike bets.
Trade Policy: Stable outlook.
Monetary Policy: Market reassessing the Fed’s tightening bias.
Trend: Bullish short-term.
Resistance: 1.1650
Support: 1.1570
Forecast: May test 1.1650 if momentum holds.
Market Sentiment: Improving risk appetite.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP release and continued Fed remarks.
GBP/USD rallied close to the 1.3450 level on Thursday, buoyed by improving risk sentiment and a softer US Dollar. The pair benefited from dovish Fed commentary which calmed investor nerves and encouraged flows into the pound. While UK macro data remains mixed, the pair was lifted by broader USD weakness. Traders await the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for short-term direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Low impact.
US Economic Data: Weak tone following dovish Fed statements.
FOMC Outcome: Fed bias shifts to caution.
Trade Policy: No fresh updates.
Monetary Policy: BoE expected to stay cautious amid mixed UK data.
Trend: Uptrend holding.
Resistance: 1.3470
Support: 1.3400
Forecast: Momentum could lift the pair toward 1.3500.
Market Sentiment: Positive on USD weakness.
Catalysts: UoM Consumer Sentiment, Fed commentary.
AUD/USD advanced modestly on Thursday as the US Dollar softened following dovish comments from Fed officials. The pair gained traction above the 0.6800 handle, reflecting improved risk appetite and optimism over global economic stability. Despite lackluster Australian data earlier in the week, the Aussie benefitted from the shifting Fed narrative. Traders now look ahead to China’s economic developments and US sentiment indicators.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, focus on China’s economic signals.
US Economic Data: Fed dovish tone drives USD lower.
FOMC Outcome: Market rethinks Fed rate path.
Trade Policy: Stable with mild optimism on China.
Monetary Policy: RBA remains data dependent.
Trend: Bullish bias returning.
Resistance: 0.6850
Support: 0.6780
Forecast: Consolidation above 0.6800 likely.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on rebound.
Catalysts: US data, Chinese trade headlines.
USD/CNH edged slightly lower on Thursday, reflecting resilience in the Chinese Yuan amid signs of thawing in US-China trade relations. China’s Commerce Minister highlighted that economic and trade ties between the two nations have weathered many storms, injecting a dose of stability into market expectations. The pair remains range-bound as investors weigh US dollar softness against cautious Chinese optimism.
Geopolitical Risks: Muted on improving rhetoric.
US Economic Data: Weaker after dovish Fed tone.
FOMC Outcome: Cautious outlook keeps USD restrained.
Trade Policy: Reassuring China-US tone.
Monetary Policy: PBOC policy expected to remain accommodative.
Trend: Sideways with mild bearish tilt.
Resistance: 7.1600
Support: 7.1300
Forecast: Mild downside pressure likely to persist.
Market Sentiment: Stabilizing on trade clarity.
Catalysts: Trade remarks, USD momentum.
NZD/USD trades steadily above the 0.5950 level as the US Dollar continues to face pressure from dovish Fedspeak. Investors are gradually moving toward risk-sensitive currencies, pushing the Kiwi higher amid improving sentiment. The pair also benefits from relatively resilient New Zealand data and broader greenback softness. Market focus now turns to US consumer sentiment data for fresh directional cues.
Geopolitical Risks: Low, with no fresh Eurozone tensions.
US Economic Data: Softer outlook after dovish Fed signals.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish remarks lowered rate hike bets.
Trade Policy: Stable outlook.
Monetary Policy: Market reassessing the Fed’s tightening bias.
Trend: Bullish short-term momentum above 0.5950.
Resistance: 0.6000
Support: 0.5920
Market Sentiment: Risk-on tone supports upside potential for NZD.
Catalysts: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report and further Fed commentary.
Major currency pairs found renewed strength as the Fed’s dovish tone reshaped investor expectations, weighing on the Greenback. EUR/USD and GBP/USD extended upward momentum while the Aussie advanced amid improved market appetite. As attention now turns to upcoming sentiment data from the US and evolving trade dynamics with China, markets remain poised for further volatility.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
The Australian Dollar slid sharply on Thursday as dismal labor market data reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Risk sentiment remained subdued across Asia-Pacific markets, while traders digested cautious commentary from Japan’s top FX officials and a stronger-than-expected PBOC yuan fix. Meanwhile, the euro drifted lower ahead of key inflation data from the Eurozone, and the New Zealand dollar weakened as market tone turned risk-off. Traders are bracing for upcoming catalysts that could dictate FX direction heading into the weekend.
AUD/USD slips to around 0.6620 following weaker-than-expected Australian labor data. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.2% in June while full-time employment fell sharply, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may shift toward monetary easing in the coming months. This data-led pullback comes amid broad US Dollar strength and cautious market sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct influence on AUD today; focus remains on macro data.
US Economic Data: USD remains bid on upbeat US retail sales and industrial production data earlier in the week.
FOMC Outcome: Fed policymakers remain cautious; no immediate signs of dovish pivot, supporting the USD.
Trade Policy: Trade tensions remain subdued; no fresh headlines impacting AUD directly.
Monetary Policy: RBA rate cut bets rise sharply after weak employment report. Money markets now price in a 25 bps cut by November, a shift from prior neutral expectations.
Trend: Bearish short-term trend intact; breakdown from 0.6700.
Resistance: 0.6700, then 0.6755 and 0.6800.
Support: 0.6620, then 0.6580 and 0.6550.
Forecast: AUD/USD may drift toward 0.6620, with a downside extension to 0.6580 if RBA rate-cut expectations intensify.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias dominates after the weak Australian labor market report increased expectations for RBA easing.
Catalysts: Rising market speculation about an RBA rate cut later this year is weighing on the AUD.
Any surprise improvement or deterioration in upcoming US data could amplify AUD/USD volatility.
Commentary from RBA officials or changes in global risk sentiment may also influence the pair’s direction.
USD/JPY trades at 147.88, near one-month highs, as Japanese authorities express concern over currency volatility. However, yield differentials continue to favor the USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven flows into yen; geopolitical tension has shifted preference to USD.
US Economic Data: Solid recent US macro figures support Treasury yields and the dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Fed remains hawkish; two cuts still expected in 2025, but not imminent.
Trade Policy: No major trade headlines affecting USD/JPY directly, but global supply chain talk continues to favor dollar safety.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s ultra-loose policy stance remains a drag on JPY, with Aoki’s verbal remarks doing little to shift outlook.
Trend: Bullish continuation after consolidating above 146.50.
Resistance: 148.00, then 148.75 and 149.10.
Support: 147.40, then 146.90 and 146.20.
Forecast: USD/JPY could test 148.75 if BoJ remains passive and US data stay strong.
Market Sentiment: Bullish; X posts emphasize yen weakness despite verbal concerns.
Catalysts: Japanese CPI due later this week, US Jobless Claims, and Fed speeches
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1610, extending its decline as markets brace for the upcoming Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) release. The pair remains under pressure from a resilient USD and cautious euro sentiment amid monetary divergence.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical tension in the Eurozone, but global unease supports USD safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Positive US indicators, including solid housing and labor data, underpin dollar strength ahead of Eurozone inflation prints.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s firm stance, with two projected rate cuts later in the year, contrasts the ECB’s pause, creating downside pressure on EUR.
Trade Policy: No fresh headlines, but concerns over transatlantic trade conditions remain in the background.
Trend: Bearish continuation from last week’s breakdown below 1.1700.
Resistance: 1.1660, then 1.1725 and 1.1800.
Support: 1.1600, followed by 1.1575 and 1.1500.
Forecast: EUR/USD could test the psychological 1.1600 support zone. A weak HICP print may trigger a further drop toward 1.1575.
Market Sentiment: Bearish bias continues across major FX desks; social media notes stress around inflation impact on ECB credibility.
Catalysts: Eurozone HICP data, US housing starts, and ECB commentary through the week.
NZD/USD trades at 0.5938, slipping below the 0.5950 threshold as risk sentiment fades and the greenback remains broadly supported. The pair continues to reflect investor caution amid mixed global data and a soft commodity outlook.
Geopolitical Risks: No direct impact on NZD, but risk-off flows due to broader geopolitical unease support USD demand.
US Economic Data: Robust US retail and housing data bolster the dollar, contributing to Kiwi weakness.
FOMC Outcome:
Hawkish Fed guidance, with delayed rate cuts, keeps USD buoyant and pressures NZD.
Trade Policy: China-related trade concerns indirectly impact NZD due to its strong trade ties with Beijing.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintains a neutral stance; markets are pricing in a possible rate cut if economic data weakens further.
Trend: Bearish breakdown below 0.5950 confirms downside pressure.
Resistance: 0.5955, followed by 0.6000 and 0.6040.
Support: 0.5920, then 0.5880 and 0.5850.
Forecast: A sustained drop below 0.5920 could trigger a retest of 0.5880. Upside recovery remains limited unless risk sentiment improves.
Market Sentiment: Bearish tone dominates Kiwi sentiment; social platforms note growing speculation around RBNZ easing.
Catalysts: China economic data, New Zealand services PMI, and upcoming US macro releases.
USD/CNY hovers around 7.1480 in offshore trade after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily reference rate at 7.1461 — a stronger-than-expected fix versus the previous 7.1526. The move reflects ongoing official efforts to stabilize the yuan amid capital outflow risks and uneven economic momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited immediate impact; investors are focused on domestic Chinese fundamentals and capital flow controls.
US Economic Data: Strong USD performance continues to influence USD/CNY direction, despite PBOC’s managed fix.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s hawkish outlook underpins USD strength, challenging China’s efforts to cap yuan weakness.
Trade Policy: No new tariff headlines, but US-China trade sentiment remains fragile and sensitive to political developments.
Monetary Policy: PBOC’s steady LPR and tighter fix signal intent to curb depreciation, while US-China policy divergence sustains wide interest rate gaps.
Trend:Rangebound with upside bias, capped by PBOC fix levels.
Resistance: 7.1520, then 7.1600 and 7.1800.
Support: 7.1380, then 7.1285 and 7.1150.
Market Sentiment: Mixed; traders are cautious about betting against PBOC, but offshore markets remain biased toward a weaker yuan.
Catalysts: US data surprises, China’s next LPR announcement, potential policy easing signals from Beijing.
In summary, today’s session was marked by a decisive shift in sentiment against the Aussie as weak employment data heightened RBA rate cut bets. Japanese authorities voiced concerns over speculative FX movements, which added to the cautious tone in yen trading. Meanwhile, the euro and kiwi softened amid broader risk aversion and anticipation of upcoming economic data. The PBOC’s stronger yuan fixing signaled some intent to stabilize the currency, yet markets remained wary. As key data looms, traders remain alert to central bank cues and macroeconomic signals to guide the next move.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
On July 16, 2025, crude oil (WTI) drifts below the $66.00 mark as global supply concerns ease following a tempered stance from the White House regarding its 50-day deadline for Russia. The pullback comes after a period of elevated prices driven by geopolitical risk, but fading urgency is softening the outlook. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) pushes toward $38.00, supported by safe-haven flows. NZD/USD trades higher above 0.5950 as sentiment improves in Asia-Pacific markets, with the PBOC maintaining currency stability at 7.1526. Investors are also focused on the UK’s CPI data and the upcoming US PPI report for further macro direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) is climbing toward $38.00, building on recent gains as global investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and cautious sentiment ahead of key inflation data. The metal continues to benefit from macro instability, with the US Dollar showing mixed performance and real yields remaining subdued.
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions persist despite the easing of some immediate trade concerns. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, fueling silver’s rally.
US Economic Data: Market participants await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could influence real yield expectations and impact precious metals.
FOMC Outcome: Recent Fed minutes indicate cautious optimism but no rush to cut rates aggressively. Uncertainty keeps support intact for non-yielding assets like silver.
Trade Policy: Lingering uncertainty surrounding global tariffs and cross-border frictions keeps risk aversion elevated, indirectly boosting silver’s appeal.
Monetary Policy: While expectations for Fed rate cuts have moderated, dovish undertones continue to support metals amid inflation and policy uncertainty.
Trend: Bullish continuation; silver extends rebound from $36.00 breakout zone.
Resistance: $37.60, then $38.00 and $38.35.
Support: $37.00, followed by $36.50 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $38.00 in the near term if US inflation data comes in softer; downside risk limited above $36.50.
Market Sentiment: Bullish bias remains intact, driven by ongoing macro uncertainty and technical strength.
Catalysts: US PPI release, Fed commentary, global risk tone, and bond market movements.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading below $66.00, retreating from recent highs as geopolitical supply risks begin to subside. Market reaction to Trump’s softened 50-day ultimatum to Russia has eased immediate fears of supply disruption, prompting traders to take profit after last week’s surge.
Geopolitical Risks: The tone around Trump’s Russia deadline has moderated, reducing the likelihood of near-term supply shocks and calming oil markets.
US Economic Data: Attention shifts to US PPI data for signs of inflationary trends, which could influence energy demand expectations and interest rate outlooks.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious stance and delayed rate cuts could weigh on growth outlook, subtly dampening oil demand expectations.
Trade Policy: Uncertainty remains around broader trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, though direct oil trade implications are limited for now.
Monetary Policy: Stable Fed positioning and relatively strong USD have limited the upside for crude, especially as risk appetite fluctuates.
Trend: Short-term bearish; retreat from $67.30 confirms corrective pressure.
Resistance: $66.75, then $67.30 and $68.50.
Support: $65.00, then $64.20 and $63.00.
Forecast: WTI may range between $64.20–$66.75. A dovish inflation surprise or renewed geopolitical flare-up could spark another upside test.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to mildly bearish as supply worries ease and traders await further macro cues.
Catalysts: Trump’s future Russia stance, US inflation data (PPI), OPEC+ commentary, and weekly inventory reports.
NZD/USD is trading above 0.5950, maintaining bullish traction as investors digest positive risk sentiment ahead of the US PPI release. The pair benefits from a softer USD and improved risk appetite, supported in part by China’s stable GDP performance and ongoing expectations for a patient Fed.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical risks remain in the background, but easing trade and supply fears support broader market stability.
US Economic Data: Investors are focused on the upcoming US Producer Price Index report, which could influence Fed rate expectations and USD performance.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed remains cautious; the absence of hawkish surprises keeps pressure on the dollar and supports risk-linked currencies like the Kiwi.
Trade Policy: Global trade tensions are easing for now, aiding risk sentiment and demand for commodity-linked currencies such as NZD.
Trend: Mild bullish recovery, with higher lows forming since 0.5900.
Resistance: 0.5975, then 0.6000 and 0.6030.
Support: 0.5925, then 0.5900 and 0.5860.
Forecast: NZD/USD could challenge 0.6000 if the US PPI print comes in soft. Downside risks limited above 0.5900.
Market Sentiment: Bullish tilt as risk sentiment improves and USD weakens modestly.
Catalysts: US PPI, Chinese trade balance follow-up, and Fed commentary.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1526 on July 16, 2025, slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1498. The move signals the central bank’s cautious stance amid global uncertainty and domestic growth challenges, as Beijing maintains tight control over the yuan’s daily midpoint to stabilize trade competitiveness.
Geopolitical Risks: Renewed global uncertainties, including energy supply and trade issues, keep the yuan in focus. However, tensions remain manageable for now.
US Economic Data: A stronger US dollar ahead of the PPI release places mild pressure on the yuan, though the PBOC fix aims to counter excess volatility.
FOMC Outcome:
The Fed’s cautious tone provides room for emerging market currencies to stabilize. China’s central bank remains committed to stability rather than easing aggressively.
Trade Policy: With Trump’s latest tariff headlines on pause, China focuses more on economic data and currency stability.
Monetary Policy: The PBOC’s steady reference rate indicates a neutral monetary stance. No rate cuts signal confidence in current liquidity levels.
Trend: Slight upward bias in USD/CNY due to cautious yuan guidance.
Resistance: 7.1650, then 7.1800 and 7.2000.
Support: 7.1450, then 7.1300 and 7.1200.
Forecast: USD/CNY may hold within a narrow band (7.1450–7.1650) as the PBOC balances economic stability and trade competitiveness.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious; investors interpret the PBOC fix as a steady hand amid inflation and trade questions.
Catalysts: Chinese retail sales and industrial output data, US PPI, Fed commentary, and potential global trade rhetoric.
GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.2950, trading in a tight range as investors await the UK CPI release due mid-week. The British Pound remains supported by cautious optimism that inflation will remain above the BoE’s 2% target, delaying potential rate cuts. Risk appetite and USD softness also help stabilize the pair.
Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact on GBP, though global energy prices and trade headlines may indirectly influence inflation expectations.
US Economic Data: Traders await the US PPI print, which may move the dollar and shift GBP/USD dynamics.
FOMC Outcome:
A less aggressive Fed tone supports GBP/USD; no rate hike surprises bolster broader FX stability.
Trade Policy: No major UK-EU or UK-US trade headlines at the moment, allowing GBP to focus on domestic data.
Monetary Policy: Markets are watching if UK CPI supports or undermines the BoE’s cautious rate cut stance. Inflation above 2.0% could strengthen GBP short-term.
Trend:Neutral to mildly bullish consolidation.
Resistance: 1.2975, then 1.3000 and 1.3050.
Support: 1.2910, followed by 1.2860 and 1.2800.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism; GBP viewed as data-sensitive with limited downside unless CPI significantly disappoints.
Catalysts: UK CPI (YoY expected at 2.0%), US PPI, Fed commentary, and broader risk appetite.
WTI’s decline signals a shift in energy market sentiment as traders weigh the real impact of political threats versus supply fundamentals. Silver’s rise and stable commodity-linked currencies reflect a cautiously optimistic tone. With inflation data due from both the US and UK, markets are likely to remain sensitive to macro headlines and central bank cues. The path ahead hinges on how policymakers respond to price pressures and geopolitical developments in the coming days.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
Open a live account and start trading in just minutes.
Fund your account using a wide range of funding methods.
Access 1000+ instruments across all asset classes
