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Safe-Haven US Dollar Surges as Iran Tensions Pressure Global FX Markets | 28th May, 2026

Risk-Off Dollar Rally

Global financial markets remain defensive as escalating Middle East tensions and fresh US strikes in Iran continue driving safe-haven demand toward the US Dollar. Commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies are under pressure, while oil prices rebound on renewed supply disruption concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also closely monitoring central bank expectations as geopolitical risks increasingly dominate overall market sentiment.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound is softening toward the 1.3400 level as rising geopolitical uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-Iran tensions continue supporting defensive USD flows

• US Economic Data: Stable US data reinforces Dollar resilience

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations widen policy divergence with the BoE

• Trade Policy: Weak global sentiment pressures Sterling demand

• Monetary Policy: Higher-for-longer Fed expectations remain USD supportive

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: 1.3470

• Support: 1.3360

• Forecast: Further downside likely while geopolitical tensions remain elevated

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish GBP

• Catalysts: Iran headlines and Fed expectations

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Japanese Yen has weakened to a four-week low against the US Dollar as strong USD demand and geopolitical risks outweigh concerns about potential Japanese intervention.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Hormuz supply fears strengthen broad USD demand

• US Economic Data: Stronger Dollar sentiment pressures Yen recovery

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook continues favoring USD strength

• Trade Policy: Risk-off positioning dominates FX flows

• Monetary Policy: BoJ policy remains accommodative relative to the Fed

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish USD/JPY

• Resistance: 160.20

• Support: 158.80

• Forecast: Pair may remain elevated while safe-haven USD demand persists

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish USD

• Catalysts: Geopolitical escalation and intervention rhetoric

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar remains pressured near its weakest levels since April as geopolitical uncertainty and broad US Dollar strength dominate market flows.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Iran tensions continue supporting safe-haven USD demand

• US Economic Data: Hawkish Fed expectations support USD/CAD upside

• FOMC Outcome: Markets maintain expectations for restrictive Fed policy

• Trade Policy: Oil price volatility creates mixed sentiment for CAD

• Monetary Policy: Fed-BoC divergence continues favoring USD strength

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish USD/CAD

• Resistance: 1.3880

• Support: 1.3780

• Forecast: Upside risks remain while geopolitical tensions persist

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish CAD

• Catalysts: Oil prices and Middle East developments

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil prices are edging higher above the $89.00 level after fresh US military strikes in Iran intensified fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Hormuz-related supply concerns support oil prices

• US Economic Data: Stronger USD limits aggressive upside momentum

• FOMC Outcome: Stable Fed expectations reduce commodity volatility

• Trade Policy: Markets monitor potential disruptions to global energy flows

• Monetary Policy: Global growth uncertainty remains a balancing factor

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: $91.20

• Support: $88.00

• Forecast: Oil may remain supported while geopolitical tensions escalate

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish oil

• Catalysts: Iran developments and shipping risks around Hormuz

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar remains near weekly lows against the US Dollar as softer RBA hike expectations and Middle East tensions continue weighing on risk-sensitive currencies.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off sentiment pressures AUD demand

• US Economic Data: Strong USD momentum limits AUD recovery

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed expectations widen policy divergence

• Trade Policy: Slower China-linked growth sentiment weighs on AUD

• Monetary Policy: Reduced RBA hike bets weaken the Australian Dollar

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bearish

• Resistance: 0.7090

• Support: 0.7000

• Forecast: AUD/USD likely to remain vulnerable in current market conditions

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish AUD

• Catalysts: RBA outlook and geopolitical developments

Wrap-Up

Global financial markets remain firmly in risk-off mode as escalating tensions between the US and Iran continue fueling safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and lifting oil prices on renewed supply disruption fears, while major currencies struggle against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and investors closely monitor further developments in the Middle East for the next major directional catalyst across FX and commodity markets.

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Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.
Legal Information:
Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets (Pty) Ltd, an authorised Financial Service Provider (“FSP”) registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (“FSCA”) of South Africa under license number 47490 and located at 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa. Company Registration Number: 2016 / 063801 / 07. Contact Phone Number: +27 (10) 1429139. Operational Office: 18 Cavendish Road, Claremont, Cape Town, Western Cape, 7708 South Africa.

Moneta Markets is a trading name of Moneta Markets Ltd, registered under Saint Lucia Registry of International Business Companies with registration number 2023-00068.

Moneta Markets Trading Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, with Company No. 211285 GBC and License No. GB24203391. Its registered office is located at Suite 201, 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, Mauritius.

Mmonexia Ltd registered in the Republic of Cyprus with registration number HE436544 and registered address at Archbishop Makarios III, 160, Floor 1, 3026, Limassol, Cyprus.