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Asian markets opened Thursday with a broadly constructive tone as fresh signals from China helped stabilize risk sentiment across currencies. The PBoC’s slightly stronger-than-expected yuan fixing, along with mixed but steady Chinese data, provided enough support to lift high-beta currencies such as the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the USD eased modestly, allowing major pairs to find short-term footing ahead of a light US data session. With Asian FX responding directly to shifts in China’s policy stance, today’s market narrative leans firmly toward improving risk appetite across the region.
USD/CNY trades slightly lower after the PBoC set the daily reference rate at 7.0825, stronger than the previous 7.0865. The firmer fixing reflects the central bank’s continued effort to stabilize the yuan amid uneven recovery momentum.
Geopolitical Risks: China’s trade tensions remain contained, allowing markets to focus on domestic stabilization.
US Economic Data: Softer USD ahead of upcoming US releases offers short-term relief for the yuan.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing expectations limit USD upside against Asia FX.
Trade Policy: Beijing’s targeted measures aim to attract capital inflows and support export competitiveness.
Monetary Policy: PBoC’s managed approach maintains yuan stability without aggressive intervention.
Trend: Slight downward bias as yuan strengthens modestly.
Resistance: 7.0900
Support: 7.0700
Forecast: Further downside is possible if PBoC continues with firmer fixings.
Market Sentiment: Stability-focused, mildly bearish USD/CNY.
Catalysts: Future PBoC fixings, China economic data, USD momentum.
NZD/USD holds above 0.5650 as mixed but steady Chinese data supports risk appetite. Improved sentiment around China’s growth outlook is lifting antipodean currencies.
Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing China–US relations reduce risk aversion for exporters like New Zealand.
US Economic Data: A softer USD restricts downside, allowing the pair to stay bid.
Trade Policy: China’s policy signals help revive demand expectations, benefiting NZ trade flows.
Trend: Mild bullish momentum above 0.5650.
Forecast: Upside continuation favored if risk sentiment holds.
Market Sentiment: Risk-on, supportive for NZD.
Catalysts: China data, US Dollar direction, broader commodity sentiment.
AUD/USD remains firm after China’s latest economic indicators showed steady performance, boosting regional confidence. The Aussie benefits directly from improved expectations for Chinese demand.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing trade tensions continue to help AUD stabilize.
US Economic Data: DXY softness keeps AUD elevated.
FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed outlook enhances AUD’s appeal.
Trend: Gradual upside bias.
Resistance: 0.6620
Support: 0.6530
Market Sentiment: Constructive for AUD.
Catalysts: China economic releases, commodity flows, US data.
USD/JPY remains near multi-month highs as weak yen dynamics persist. Comments from Japan’s Kiuchi highlighted concerns that a soft yen could lift CPI via import costs, signaling limited policy tightening ahead.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk backdrop keeps safe-haven demand muted.
US Economic Data: USD strength capped but still supportive relative to JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed easing limits aggressive USD/JPY upside, but yield differentials remain wide.
Trend: Strong bullish continuation.
Resistance: 154.80
Support: 153.50
Forecast: Pair may retest highs if BoJ remains passive.
Market Sentiment: Bearish JPY.
Catalysts: BoJ statements, inflation indicators, US yields.
EUR/USD trades just below the mid-1.1600s as the pair struggles to break above its 50-day SMA. A weaker USD underpins the euro, but momentum remains limited.
Geopolitical Risks: Stable European landscape keeps EUR steady.
US Economic Data: A softer USD favors the euro’s consolidation.
FOMC Outcome: Fed dovishness supports moderate EUR upside.
Trade Policy: No major EU–US developments, keeping price action technical.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish consolidation.
Resistance:1.1650
Support: 1.1580
Forecast: Break above the 50-day SMA may trigger fresh bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously positive for EUR.
Catalysts: ECB commentary, US inflation, technical breakout levels.
Markets remain cautiously optimistic as China’s policy signals continue to shape early-session flows, lending support to risk currencies while keeping the USD on the defensive. If Chinese data stabilizes further, the AUD and NZD could extend their upward bias, while the EUR and JPY will stay sensitive to broader shifts in sentiment and yield expectations. For now, traders are positioning around a more supportive Asian backdrop, awaiting fresh catalysts that could confirm whether today’s risk-friendly tone carries into the global session.
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